A powerful storm system will lift northeast out of the Southern Plains today spreading rain, snow, and freezing rain across much of the eastern United States. Moderate to heavy freezing rain will impact locations from the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Midwest and Northeast. Dangerous travel conditions and power outages are possible. Isolated strong gusts and perhaps a tornado are possible from across parts of South Carolina, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle.
A deep upper-level trough is digging its way south across the western CONUS bringing cool air with it. This deep upper-level trough is bringing in a depth of cold air that is expected to remain sufficient enough for snow on the northwest side of the developing low-pressure system, with several inches of snow accumulation likely. In this deep upper-level trough, a pair of upper-level lows, one located over Oklahoma will gradually lift northeast while filling throughout the day today, and one in southern Arizona/New Mexico/ northern Mexico. A jet max exits the base of the upper-level trough while another jet max and major short wave trough moves in. This new shortwave and jet max will provide support for our next system that we could see develop over the Upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday. The close low located over Oklahoma is accompanied by a robust subtropical jet streak (STJ) driving upper-level support and divergence aloft for ventilation for the surface low to strengthen from Oklahoma to Indiana before shifting into New England Saturday. Deep layer ascent through mid-level divergence downstream of the closed low, the aforementioned upper divergence by the STJ streak, and convergence with the surface low will produce precipitation, with strong WAA ahead of the main system lifting isentropically atop a surface high to expand precipitation north and east through the day. The strong WAA ahead of the main system lifting over the SFC warm front is accompanied by increased mid-level flow from the south creating an expansive area of freezing rain. This low will be accompanied by a leading warm front, and robust antecedent WAA spreading significant and widespread precipitation across the eastern half of the CONUS. There remains some uncertainty continuing into how much freezing rain will accrete. Despite the uncertainties, WPC probabilities for >0.25" of freezing rain are high for a narrow swath from northeast Missouri through northern Illinois (just south of Chicago) and into southern Michigan. Local maxima approaching 0.5" is possible. As this system moves into the NE, the upper-level front along with WAA and intense isentropic ascent will drive a long duration moderate to heavy snowfall. WPC probabilities for 4 inches are high tomorrow across much of northern New Hampshire and Maine, and into the terrain of upstate New York and Vermont. Isolated locations, especially across Maine, may reach 10" of accumulation before the low pulls away Saturday night.
Snow Fall Map - for the next 72 hours.
Our in house model for the next 72 hours. Swath of 1-3" stretching across northern Missouri, northern Illinois, NW Indiana, and south/central Michigan.
Intense snowfall late tonight into Saturday across the NE. Swath of 5-8" of snow with isolated locations, especially across Maine, may reach 10" of accumulation before the low pulls away Saturday night.
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Isolated strong gusts and perhaps a tornado are possible from across parts of South Carolina, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle.