A couple of rounds of winter weather forecasted to impact parts of the Central Plains, Mid-Atlantic, and even the Northeast. Lake Effect snow conditions to continue today across parts of Lake Erie and Ontario as this deep low moves north into Ontario. We continue to monitor for the potential for several inches or more of snowfall over portions of the eastern US this weekend as an area of energy moves over the Rockies through the Central Plain and interacts with a weak surface low over the Southeastern US. A new low-pressure system is forecasted to develop along the lee side of the Appalachian Mountain Region with a Nor'easter type storm system developing bring the potential for heavy snowfall to the NE. Weather models continue to suggest an eastern track with this low-pressure system while we believe this system will have a more western movement riding a thermal boundary across the region. With that uncertainty does remain on the track of this next low-pressure system and intensity so the forecast is subject to change. We also continue to monitor well below normal temperatures as we see the weakening of upper-level winds over the artic allow for a blast of cold air to impact much of the US. Below average temperature and lows forecasted to be in the -20 to -30°F for some in the Northern Plains and Upper-Midwest. Severe thunderstorms are expected today and tomorrow across parts of central Florida with damaging winds, hail, and few isolated tornadoes possible across this region.
A broad upper-level trough is spreading across the entirety of the CONUS. A reinforcing shortwave trough is moving over the northern MT/ND border and will shift southeast, crossing the Upper Midwest tonight. Low-level convergence spreading up the Plains and the reinforcing trough over the northern Plains is providing favorable
forcing aloft along with strong low-to-mid level frontogenesis and locally moderate snow moving progressively southeast across Nebraska and northern Kansas this morning. his shifts across northern Missouri and southern Iowa today. The ongoing lake effect event off Lakes Superior and Michigan will wane this morning on the approach of this trough. Westerly flow and strong cold air advection behind this shortwave will continue to support Lake Effect Snow development across Lakes Erie and Ontario, with locally heavy accumulations continuing through this afternoon across the Buffalo and Tug Hill regions of New York. Winds will shift late this evening cutting off the long fetch across the lakes ending the Lake Effect Snow across this region.
A shortwave trough moving into the northern TX Panhandle this morning and will swing east to the Mid-South states today and the southern Appalachians tonight. Surface low development along the Carolinas Coast begins tonight with the low continuing to develop as it tracks northeast becoming a nor'easter type storm system forming near Cape Hatteras and passing the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts through Sunday evening with the help of the upper-level support from the system moving across the Midwest. The key to this system will be low-level frontogenesis allowing dynamics and isentropic ascent across the region. Models are having trouble with a consensus on the low-pressure track and snowfall totals across the region. We continue to monitor and provide updates. Most models suggest the surface low to remain further off the east coast but we saw this last time with our previous system and the system tracked further westward as we expected. We expect to see similar conditions again with this storm system but less snowfall.
A couple of shortwave impulses or areas of energy will move across the northern British Columbia coast and into the northern Rockies and will shift of the Pacific NW and the Northern Rockies through Sunday. This will support additional heavy mountain snow from the WA Cascades across the Northern Rockies, with lighter snows spreading east into the northern High Plains to the Central Plains/Nebraska into Sunday night.
Snowfall Forecast Charts
Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing strong to damaging winds, a tornado, and some hail are expected over parts of the Florida Peninsula today into tonight.
A couple of strong storms are possible across central Florida Sunday morning.