The major winter storm that brought snow and major icing is beginning to push off the east coast in the NE. Two disturbances, one over the Central Plains will bring snow to the Midwest/Ohio Valley and Great Lakes Region and another over the SE that will be rain and snow to the northeast in the next couple of days. Marginal severe weather conditions expected today across the SE across parts of northern Florida and southern Georgia.
Two distinct storm systems will bring impactful winter weather to the Northeast through the weekend and into early next week. Today an area of low pressure will race quickly eastward across the NE. WPC probabilities indicate a high chance for 4 inches across most of north and central Maine and Coos County, NH, with isolated accumulations of 8" possible. The exact track of this low will determine the rain/snow line, but there is good model agreement that much of Northern New England will remain all snow among the Euro, GFS, NAM, and UKMET, with snow to mix to rain scenario likely in central and southern parts of New England. The initial precipitation could be heavy at times as WAA and modest isentropic ascent spread northward ahead of the warm front, but this should be snow to mix to rain scenario for much of the region outside of the northern tier. However, as the low moves eastward we will start to see less WAA and colder/drier air working its way in from the NW behind the low. This combined with a modest jet streak could drive the potential for heavier snow bands across interior Maine, possibly dropping closer to the coast towards the end of the event.
Another system will develop along the residual baroclinic gradient left in the wake of the first low along the trailing cold front stretched across the SE, with cyclogenesis developing in response to renewed height falls/mid-level divergence and upper-level support with divergence aloft and energy from a jet streak moving through arcing poleward from the Deep South. This low and impressive 850 mb moisture flux with anomalies peak around 3 standard deviations above normal per the GFES/SREF, along with marginal instable and upper-level support will support wet conditions across the southeast. Hourly rainfall rates of 1-1.5" will be possible per the CAMs and latest HREF exceedance probabilities, especially in areas of training cells. This low is foreaceted move offshore the Mid-Atlantic, riding up the east coast. Current WPC probabilities are modest for 4 inches tomorrow and on Sunday, but there is potential for quite a bit more, especially in Maine, where a stalling or retrograding low with persistent MAA could increase snowfall across the region.
Northwest Wet Conditions:
Three distinct shortwaves are likely to move onshore this period to aid in deep layer ascent. These are forecasted to move onshore this morning, again Sunday morning, and a third more robust shortwave with slightly more amplitude is progged for Monday night. Each of these will be accompanied by a cold front, and the
combination of low-level convergence, height falls, periods of WAA as mid-level flow backs ahead of each shortwave, and upper-level support will drive ascent across much of the West. With multiple storm systems are forecast to move into the West,
expect antecedent conditions to potentially worsen towards early next week. Any additional rainfall over saturated soils may lead to localized flooding concerns. Models suggest MAA in the low to mid-level and precipitable water values just under 1", which is 1.5-2 standard deviations above the mean, will be nosing into the region. This moisture surge as seen on the NAM/GFS, aided by 50+ knot low-level southwesterly flow. This combined with strong divergence aloft will promote a period of moderate to heavy rain across the region. The area of most concern will be along the upslope regions of the Nearly all guidance is suggesting amounts upwards of 3 to 6+ inches to fall, especially along the upslope region of the terrain. Areal average precipitation will be around 1-2+ inches tomorrow and Sunday, with locally higher amounts expected along the windward side of the terrain
Current Winter Weather Watches, Warnings and Advisories
Visit https://www.dynamicweatheragency.com/hazardous-weather-outlook for most recent update.
24 Hour Forecasted Snowfall (Updated at 11:15AM EST)
Next 72 Hour Forecasted Snowfall Ohio Valley & Northeast CONUS
72 Hour Forecasted Snowfall Northwest CONUS
Isolated strong to briefly severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and evening, from the eastern Florida Panhandle into southeastern Georgia.