Christmas Eve- Severe Storms and Tornadoes to impact parts of the Mid Atlantic

Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region Thursday afternoon and evening. A few severe thunderstorms are also possible across portions of southeast Alabama, southwest Georgia, and Florida Thursday. Damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes are possible. With sufficient destabilization of the boundary layer, in association with a saturated vertical column, strong deep-layer wind shear, and storm forcing from the SFC cold front, severe storms are expected to develop across the mid-Atlantic and support some rotating thunderstorms which may produce a couple of tornadoes.

A deep trough moving across the central US, becoming neutrally tilted. Ahead of the upper-level trough is some diffluent flow allowing for some strong divergence aloft. At the surface (SFC) and ahead of the surface low, sufficient moist air advection (MAA) and destabilization ahead of the strong SFC front will provide lift and synoptic forcing in this strong shear and weakly unstable environment. MUCAPE of 500-1300j/kg will be sufficient enough of supercell development. Strong low-level directional shear with winds backed ahead of the SFC cold front will be supportive of low-level rotation. Storm motion will be to the NNE at 50-60KT.

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